Os impactos causados pela globalização na economia mundial
Palavras-chave:
Algeria, Refined Oil Products, Fuel Subsidies, Demand Elasticity, Energy PolicyResumo
O mercado de produtos petrolíferos refinados da Argélia apresenta um paradoxo estrutural: apesar de ser um dos principais exportadores de hidrocarbonetos da África, o país tornou-se um importador líquido crescente de produtos refinados. Este artigo estima as elasticidades-preço e elasticidades-renda da demanda argelina por produtos refinados no período 2000–2023, ampliando a literatura empírica prévia, que aborda apenas energia agregada ou relações CO₂–energia. Utilizando uma especificação de teste de limites ARDL (1,1,0,1) selecionada pelo Critério Bayesiano de Schwarz com índice real de preço de combustível, PIB per capita real e frota de veículos registrados como regressores centrais, estimamos uma elasticidade-preço de longo prazo de −0,218 e uma elasticidade-renda de 0,872. O termo de correção de erros ECM (−1) = −0,312 indica que aproximadamente 31% de qualquer desvio do equilíbrio de longo prazo é corrigido anualmente, implicando um horizonte de ajuste de cerca de três anos para uma reforma de preços. A robustez é confirmada em seis especificações alternativas, incluindo um controle pelo preço do petróleo Brent que confirma viés de endogeneidade negligenciável. Os resultados econométricos são integrados a uma avaliação da cadeia de valor do setor de refino argelino e a uma análise de quatro distorções estruturais: precificação administrada, contrabando de combustível, lacunas de investimento em refinarias e sustentabilidade fiscal. Evidências comparativas do Cazaquistão, Irã, Egito e Indonésia fundamentam um roteiro gradual e baseado em regras para a reforma de preços, apoiado por transferências diretas de renda como a via mais viável para a normalização do mercado.
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